Ran Quick NCAA Scoring Analysis
Here's the quick scoring breakdown based on the following assumptions I ran. It is purely to illustrate where we sit based on seeding and is not necessarily a robust analysis.
- No bonus points (every match is a decision)
- Only analyzed top eight seeds in each weight class (1st: 20 points; 2nd: 16 pts; 3rd: 13.5 pts; 4th: 12.5 pts; 5th: 10 pts; 6th: 9 pts; 7th: 6.5 pts; 8th: 5.5 pts)
- every wrestling wrestles exactly to their seed across all teams
1. Penn State (113)
2. Oklahoma State (102)
3. Ohio State (88.5)
4. Iowa (74.5)
5. Hokies (73.5)
6. Mizzou (61.5)
7. Cornell (42.5)
8. Nebraska (42)
9. Minnesota (36
10. ASU (33)
As you can see, there is still some separation for penn state (though if Suriano isn't in full form that narrows quickly), but we are within a hair of Iowa for podium.
One shortcoming is bonus points aren't assumed here (too subjective for me to add in with any confidence), and there are some guys on other teams that could rack up bonus points (2 pin; 1.5 tech w/back; 1 MD).
Another is that it doesn't incorporate guys who are ranked 9 to 16 (just being lazy here since). Teams like Iowa with a bunch of extra guys in the tourney could grab some points here. We also know some of these guys can make huge runs. Hopefully, Sal has one for us.
One fun fact, take out our seniors (ty & joey [& sal]) this year and we are still in 7th place in this tourney as is. Pretty impressive
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Posted: 03/08/2017 at 9:14PM